tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 13:45 PDX → 19:50 ORD
    AA 3303 · American · 4h 05m · 53% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 ORD → 23:59 DCA
    AA 1187 · American · 2h 04m · 58% on time, 11.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (11.8% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 14mPDX 13:45 to DCA 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.