tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → New Orleans via Miami: arrives on time 42%

  1. 16:25 PHL → 19:27 MIA
    AA 3306 · American · 3h 02m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 MIA → 21:21 MSY
    AA 2196 · American · 2h 06m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 56mPHL 16:25 to MSY 21:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.