tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → San Francisco via Philadelphia: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:05 BOS → 18:49 PHL
    AA 3309 · American · 1h 44m · 58% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:46 PHL → 23:10 SFO
    AA 3166 · American · 6h 24m · 57% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 9h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip9h 05mBOS 17:05 to SFO 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.