tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Seattle via Philadelphia: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:05 BOS → 18:49 PHL
    AA 3309 · American · 1h 44m · 58% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:35 PHL → 22:56 SEA
    AA 3259 · American · 6h 21m · 72% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip8h 51mBOS 17:05 to SEA 22:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.