tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Madison via Philadelphia: arrives on time 38%

  1. 17:05 BOS → 18:49 PHL
    AA 3309 · American · 1h 44m · 58% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:04 PHL → 21:41 MSN
    AA 5512 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 35m · 70% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 34mBOS 17:05 to MSN 21:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.