tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Louisville via Washington: arrives on time 65%

  1. 13:42 MIA → 16:26 DCA
    AA 3310 · American · 2h 44m · 70% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 19m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 DCA → 21:40 SDF
    AA 4672 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 55m · 72% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 154 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 19m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip7h 58mMIA 13:42 to SDF 21:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.