tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Nashville via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 53%

  1. 23:45 SMF → 05:04 DFW
    AA 3314 · American · 3h 19m · 74% on time, 4.1% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:00 DFW → 08:01 BNA +1 day
    AA 3912 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 01m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (4.1% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 16mSMF 23:45 to BNA 08:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.