tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 70%

  1. 10:20 PHX → 15:58 ORD
    AA 332 · American · 3h 37m · 74% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 31m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:29 ORD → 22:04 SDF
    AA 4603 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 75% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 166 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 31m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 44mPHX 10:20 to SDF 22:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.