tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 12:15 PHX → 18:08 ORD
    AA 338 · American · 3h 53m · 70% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:59 ORD → 22:07 RDU
    AA 129 · American · 2h 08m · 54% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip6h 52mPHX 12:15 to RDU 22:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.