Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Phoenix → Austin via Chicago: arrives on time 40%
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12:15 PHX → 18:08 ORDAA 338 · American · 3h 53m · 70% on time, 0.7% cancelled
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55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:03 ORD → 21:59 AUSAA 1715 · American · 2h 44m · 61% on time, 1.5% cancelled
Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 32mPHX 12:15 to AUS 21:59, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.