tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 12:15 PHX → 18:08 ORD
    AA 338 · American · 3h 53m · 70% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 ORD → 21:00 XNA
    AA 4105 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 00m · 70% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 45mPHX 12:15 to XNA 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.