tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 12:15 PHX → 18:08 ORD
    AA 338 · American · 3h 53m · 70% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:56 ORD → 21:34 DTW
    AA 4931 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 57% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip6h 18mPHX 12:15 to DTW 21:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.