tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Columbus via Chicago: arrives on time 66%

  1. 12:15 PHX → 18:08 ORD
    AA 338 · American · 3h 53m · 70% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:54 ORD → 23:32 CMH
    AA 4445 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 72% on time, 5.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 121 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 46m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (5.2% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip8h 17mPHX 12:15 to CMH 23:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.