tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Los Angeles: arrives on time 75%

  1. 15:40 JFK → 18:48 LAX
    AA 341 · American · 6h 08m · 77% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 02m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 LAX → 23:23 SMF
    AA 4908 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 34m · 79% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 10h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 137 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 02m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip10h 44mJFK 15:40 to SMF 23:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.