tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 78%

  1. 15:40 JFK → 18:48 LAX
    AA 341 · American · 6h 08m · 77% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 44m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:32 LAX → 23:59 SFO
    AA 6510 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 27m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 179 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 44m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip11h 19mJFK 15:40 to SFO 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.