Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
New York → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 50%
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16:00 LGA → 18:08 ORDAA 396 · American · 3h 08m · 64% on time, 4.6% cancelled
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1h 21m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:29 ORD → 22:04 SDFAA 4603 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 75% on time, 4.3% cancelled
Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (4.6% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 04mLGA 16:00 to SDF 22:04, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.