tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Minneapolis via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:00 PHL → 17:50 DFW
    AA 402 · American · 3h 50m · 68% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:51 DFW → 21:20 MSP
    AA 2806 · American · 2h 30m · 58% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 21mPHL 15:00 to MSP 21:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.