tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Memphis via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 37%

  1. 12:52 PHL → 15:31 DFW
    AA 415 · American · 3h 39m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:21 DFW → 18:00 MEM
    AA 3677 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 39m · 59% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 08mPHL 12:52 to MEM 18:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.