tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Seattle via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 40%

  1. 11:02 PHL → 13:38 DFW
    AA 417 · American · 3h 36m · 76% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:33 DFW → 16:47 SEA
    AA 727 · American · 4h 14m · 57% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 45mPHL 11:02 to SEA 16:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.