tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → Sacramento via Phoenix: arrives on time 87%

  1. 21:17 OGG → 06:00 PHX
    AA 432 · American · 5h 43m · 94% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:15 PHX → 09:21 SMF +1 day
    AA 4099 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 06m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time87%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip9h 04mOGG 21:17 to SMF 09:21, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.