tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Miami via Philadelphia: arrives on time 41%

  1. 09:21 SAN → 17:45 PHL
    AA 433 · American · 5h 24m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 PHL → 21:38 MIA
    AA 2111 · American · 3h 03m · 63% on time, 10.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (10.0% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip9h 17mSAN 09:21 to MIA 21:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.