tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:45 PHL → 17:29 ORD
    AA 470 · American · 2h 44m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:51 ORD → 20:39 PHX
    AA 866 · American · 3h 45m · 64% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 51mPHL 15:45 to PHX 20:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.