tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Greensboro via Chicago: arrives on time 51%

  1. 15:45 PHL → 17:29 ORD
    AA 470 · American · 2h 44m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:42 ORD → 21:51 GSO
    AA 3648 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 07m · 78% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 04mPHL 15:45 to GSO 21:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.