tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Des Moines via Chicago: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:45 PHL → 17:29 ORD
    AA 470 · American · 2h 44m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 ORD → 20:13 DSM
    AA 4102 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 33m · 69% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 28mPHL 15:45 to DSM 20:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.