tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:45 PHL → 17:29 ORD
    AA 470 · American · 2h 44m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:17 ORD → 19:44 STL
    AA 4144 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 27m · 60% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 59mPHL 15:45 to STL 19:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.