tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Columbia via Chicago: arrives on time 63%

  1. 15:45 PHL → 17:29 ORD
    AA 470 · American · 2h 44m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 45m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:14 ORD → 23:19 CAE
    AA 4275 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 10m · 76% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 120 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 45m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 39mPHL 15:45 to CAE 23:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.