tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:45 PHL → 17:29 ORD
    AA 470 · American · 2h 44m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:56 ORD → 21:34 DTW
    AA 4931 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 57% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 48mPHL 15:45 to DTW 21:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.