tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Pittsburgh via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 15:45 PHL → 17:29 ORD
    AA 470 · American · 2h 44m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 ORD → 21:30 PIT
    AA 4569 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 47m · 71% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 47mPHL 15:45 to PIT 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.