tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 75%

  1. 06:30 JFK → 09:29 DFW
    AA 475 · American · 3h 59m · 96% on time, 10.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:50 DFW → 11:19 PHX
    AA 2990 · American · 2h 29m · 85% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (10.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip7h 49mJFK 06:30 to PHX 11:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.