tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Santa Rosa via Phoenix: arrives on time 21%

  1. 08:55 DFW → 09:29 PHX
    AA 520 · American · 2h 34m · 76% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:17 PHX → 12:30 STS
    AA 3514 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 13m · 38% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Rosa is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (38%).
Total trip5h 35mDFW 08:55 to STS 12:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.