tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Des Moines via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 16:18 CLT → 17:42 ORD
    AA 536 · American · 2h 23m · 68% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 ORD → 20:13 DSM
    AA 4102 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 33m · 69% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 55mCLT 16:18 to DSM 20:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.