tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Philadelphia via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 26%

  1. 08:57 PHX → 16:22 RDU
    AA 543 · American · 4h 24m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 RDU → 19:01 PHL
    AA 2360 · American · 1h 39m · 47% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip7h 04mPHX 08:57 to PHL 19:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.