tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 83%

  1. 09:00 MIA → 11:55 PHL
    AA 551 · American · 2h 55m · 86% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 39m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:34 PHL → 17:45 SDF
    AA 4720 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 11m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 174 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 39m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip8h 45mMIA 09:00 to SDF 17:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.