tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Rapid City via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 64%

  1. 09:30 PHX → 14:08 DFW
    AA 554 · American · 2h 38m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:58 DFW → 16:20 RAP
    AA 3762 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 22m · 81% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 50mPHX 09:30 to RAP 16:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.