tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Chicago via Orlando: arrives on time 86%

  1. 21:51 PHX → 05:00 MCO
    AA 563 · American · 4h 09m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 51m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:51 MCO → 09:59 ORD +1 day
    AA 3018 · American · 3h 08m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 126 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 51m layover.
Arrives on time86%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip10h 08mPHX 21:51 to ORD 09:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.