tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Philadelphia via Orlando: arrives on time 90%

  1. 21:51 PHX → 05:00 MCO
    AA 563 · American · 4h 09m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:40 MCO → 11:16 PHL +1 day
    AA 629 · American · 2h 36m · 92% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 175 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip10h 25mPHX 21:51 to PHL 11:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.