tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Raleigh/Durham via Orlando: arrives on time 90%

  1. 21:51 PHX → 05:00 MCO
    AA 563 · American · 4h 09m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 20m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 08:20 MCO → 10:05 RDU +1 day
    WN 684 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 110 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 20m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip9h 14mPHX 21:51 to RDU 10:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.