tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Louisville via Orlando: arrives on time 85%

  1. 21:51 PHX → 05:00 MCO
    AA 563 · American · 4h 09m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 00m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 08:00 MCO → 10:10 SDF +1 day
    WN 872 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 90 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 00m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip9h 19mPHX 21:51 to SDF 10:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.