tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Raleigh/Durham via New York: arrives on time 37%

  1. 16:13 DFW → 21:00 JFK
    AA 578 · American · 3h 47m · 57% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 JFK → 00:12 RDU +1 day
    AA 4573 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 09m · 72% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 56mDFW 16:13 to RDU 00:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.