tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 54%

  1. 06:40 MIA → 09:08 ORD
    AA 581 · American · 3h 28m · 87% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:10 ORD → 13:30 EWR
    AA 2250 · American · 2h 20m · 64% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 50mMIA 06:40 to EWR 13:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.