tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Minneapolis via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:25 JFK → 20:30 DFW
    AA 606 · American · 4h 05m · 60% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 DFW → 23:57 MSP
    AA 3149 · American · 2h 27m · 44% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip7h 32mJFK 17:25 to MSP 23:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.