tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:25 JFK → 20:30 DFW
    AA 606 · American · 4h 05m · 60% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:16 DFW → 22:24 SNA
    AA 348 · American · 3h 08m · 74% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip7h 59mJFK 17:25 to SNA 22:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.