tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 32%

  1. 17:25 JFK → 20:30 DFW
    AA 606 · American · 4h 05m · 60% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DFW → 23:59 SMF
    AA 509 · American · 3h 29m · 44% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 9h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip9h 34mJFK 17:25 to SMF 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.