tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 65%

  1. 07:25 ATL → 08:45 ORD
    AA 616 · American · 2h 20m · 75% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:35 ORD → 11:59 DAY
    AA 3786 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 24m · 100% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (100%).
Total trip4h 34mATL 07:25 to DAY 11:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.