tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Tulsa via Chicago: arrives on time 63%

  1. 07:25 ATL → 08:45 ORD
    AA 616 · American · 2h 20m · 75% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:40 ORD → 11:44 TUL
    AA 4135 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 04m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip5h 19mATL 07:25 to TUL 11:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.