tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Traverse City via Chicago: arrives on time 55%

  1. 07:25 ATL → 08:45 ORD
    AA 616 · American · 2h 20m · 75% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:32 ORD → 11:54 TVC
    AA 4190 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 22m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip4h 29mATL 07:25 to TVC 11:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.