tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Austin via Philadelphia: arrives on time 45%

  1. 14:10 ATL → 16:25 PHL
    AA 621 · American · 2h 15m · 65% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:39 PHL → 20:30 AUS
    AA 1314 · American · 3h 51m · 68% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 20mATL 14:10 to AUS 20:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.