tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Tampa via Philadelphia: arrives on time 44%

  1. 14:10 ATL → 16:25 PHL
    AA 621 · American · 2h 15m · 65% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 33m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:58 PHL → 20:40 TPA
    AA 2322 · American · 2h 42m · 62% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 48 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 33m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 30mATL 14:10 to TPA 20:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.