tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Providence via Philadelphia: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:10 ATL → 16:25 PHL
    AA 621 · American · 2h 15m · 65% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 PHL → 18:59 PVD
    AA 5183 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 24m · 50% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 49mATL 14:10 to PVD 18:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.