tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Buffalo via Philadelphia: arrives on time 37%

  1. 14:10 ATL → 16:25 PHL
    AA 621 · American · 2h 15m · 65% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:12 BUF
    AA 6114 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 32m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 02mATL 14:10 to BUF 19:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.